[NEW] Manila Major Compendium Predictions | manila major dota 2 – Vietnamnhanvan

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The Manila Major is just around the corner and as with every Major, you can enter predictions into your Battle Pass on the outcome of the tournament. Among “simple” predictions such as the tournament winner or the final prizepool [EDIT: for TI6], you can also predict more intricate topics such as the amount of total games played, heroes picked or which player will highest GPM average.

If you might be lost on what kind of predictions to make, but wish to take on the gamble for some sweet Battle Points anyway, we have you covered. A lot of community renowned personalities have done their own take on these predictions and we will guide you through them with a list of alternatives that you can and maybe should pick at your own leisure.

A list of predictions can be found here, compiled by reddit user Kainaabz. Links to the individual prediction videos can be found at the bottom of the article.


When looking at any predictions, it is vital to look towards the most recent tournament trends, especially the big ones such as Epicenter. It definitely showed what a lot of the top teams favor and like to do and what common picks and bans there are.

Lion and Beastmaster have been amongst the most contested heroes in pro games for a while now and tied as most picked (31) at Epicenter. However, Lion was only rarely banned, unlike Beastmaster who is definitely banned a lot. In fact, he was banned in 16/18 DreamLeague LAN Finals matches. It makes sense to pick Lion as most picked and Beastmaster as most banned. There’s arguments to be made that Bounty Hunter and Doom could contest Beastmaster in regards to bans. That said, Bounty Hunter has fallen off quite a bit in popularity and he was in fact neither picked nor banned a single time during the Epicenter grand finals. Most analysts seem to agree, although Purge and Siractionslacks brought Disruptor to the table–the hero certainly has risen in popularity. Merlini chose to go with Phoenix, another viable hero that has risen in popularity and success–the grand finals of the North-American qualifier for The Summit 5 had Phoenix win every single game.

Lion, Beastmaster, Doom, Disruptor, Phoenix. All viable heroes for most picked.

Lion, Beastmaster, Doom, Bounty Hunter. All viable heroes for most banned.

The hero with the highest winrate is likely a hero whose overall games played number is just above the minimum requirement of five. All analysts agree that there is no way of making a certain prediction here, so going with a gut feeling is not wrong. Nahaz and Noxville both went for Tidehunter and Gyrocopter, Merlini chose Lycan whereas Purge and Slacks opted for the Phoenix. It makes sense to go with these pocket type of heroes that work in a specific strat that is difficult to counter. Lycan is a Team Liquid favorite and if it’s not banned against them, you could bank on them to bring that prediction home for you. That said, there’s nothing wrong with choosing heroes such as Clinkz, Slark, Medusa or even Viper. Viper is usually picked to dominate a lane and never picked early enough for the opponents to really counter him. In fact, at Epicenter he was picked exactly 5 times and won 4 of those games.

The hero with the highest kill average should yet again be a hero with only the bare minimum of required games. It’s ideally a hero, that gets kills regardless of the state or outcome of the game. Classic pubstompers come to mind such as Slark, Ursa or Queen of Pain. Some analysts brought up other heroes that have proven to be niche picks by certain players and are also capable of completing kills, such as Templar Assassin or Tiny.

As for highest assist average, heroes with global spells come to mind. Spectre is definitely a viable pick here, considering her natural ability to be part of every engagement. With her, it’s simply a question of how many games she’ll actually be picked in. Nahaz chose Dark Seer and there are cases to be made for supports or gankers to be chosen as well. In Shanghai, Earth Spirit had a 12.42 assist average after 12 games. At Epicenter, Ancient Apparition had an assist average of 18.67 with 6 games played.

A lot of analysts look towards Morphling to be hero with the lowest death average, which is fair because the hero is innately difficult to kill and he shines as a last pick when there’s a low amount of counters against him. That said, he’s generally not picked that often, so alternatives are certainly to be considered. Lycan is also very elusive and difficult to kill, but is much more popular. Team Liquid alone picked him up 4 times during Epicenter. Because he is such a popular hero of theirs and they just won Epicenter, there’s a good chance this hero could be banned against them often times. Lone Druid, Anti-Mage or Naga Siren are good alternatives, although Naga is also not sure to be picked at least 5 times.

The hero with the highest last hit average is another category that splits the opinion of multiple people. Naga Siren, Medusa, Alchemist, Sven and Anti-Mage are often named. A black sheep in this race could be Tinker, a hero that has gained increased popularity as of late. His lasthits are generally not as reliable as those of the other heroes mentioned, but it’s worth a shot in the dark if the other options seem to generic.

As for highest GPM average, there should only be one answer. In a meta where he is picked, Alchemist leaves his mark on GPM records. However, there are other contestants, similar to the last hit average, that can take the crown, such as Naga Siren or Anti-Mage, that make for a good out of the box prediction.
Most kills in a game and most last hits in a game cover pretty much the same heroes that were already covered in their average counter-parts. You can be a bit more bold in these predictions though, since there is no minimum amount of games played required. If you didn’t believe that Clinkz would make the highest kill avg. list, you can still pick him here. Similarly, if you don’t think Terrorblade will be picked 5 times but he can still outfarm everybody else at least once, go for him.

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Who is going to be the winner of The Manila Major? A good question with so many possible answers. A lot of analysts choose the “obvious” answer, as Team LiquidTeam Liquid showed in quite convincing fashion at Epicenter that they are at least currently the best team. It can be argued though that as top favorites, their number will be up. OGOG recently won DreamLeague Season 5 with ease and placed third at Epicenter, putting up a strong fight against both Newbee and Liquid. Speaking of Newbee, the Chinese powerhouse, despite a few hiccups after Epicenter, demonstrated that they are back to aim for the top and displayed some high level of play in Moscow. If these three favorites are too boring for you, there are always potential upsets from teams such as the wings gamingthe wings gaming, who’ve been impressive lately, or even Team SecretTeam Secret, who’ve not won a single official match since Shanghai but could very well perform at this event, much like they did in Shanghai.

A lot if not all of these categories could be answered with some of the top favorites, but there are some categories that have a lot of “upset” potential. Natus VincereNatus Vincere likes drafting aggressive push and ganking line-ups that can lead to clean and early executions, thus a low death count and possibly the shortest win of the tournament.

compLexity GamingcompLexity Gaming is a team that will always keep on fighting and has proven to be a true team through and through, which puts them as a viable candidate for the most assists in a game.

FnaticFnatic is known to be very diverse in their drafts and carry player Mushi has a reputation of being able to play whatever hero is necessary to secure victory.

As for the team with the fewest hero picks, it is almost always the team that is likely to be eliminated the fastest and “easiest”. A team that doesn’t get to play many games in the first place. MineskiMineski seems to be the team that most analysts agree on will be eliminated early on.


The players here are, for the most part, core players from teams that are expected to do well in the tournament. Standout performers, that can decide games by themselves and are known to have high impact and high value performances.

When it comes to highest kill average and most kills in a game, there are some immediate picks to think of. OG’s Miracle has added Timbersaw to his repertoire of picks enemies will shiver in fear from and even outside of the hero, Miracle has a variety of options to dominate games with. Newbee’s Mu and Hao are both very much in shape right now. There are also other stars that shine in regards to kill scores in a single game, such as MVP’s QO or even compLexity’s Chessie and Empire’s Ramzes.

Hao is a player to look out for the GPM related records. That said, he’s not a Naga Siren player, so if you are banking on Naga Siren to take the single game record, you could look towards other carry players. Alliance’s Loda comes to mind, Secret’s EternalEnvy or even EG’s Aui_2000. For the averages though, Hao and Miracle are safe picks.

As for assists, it could be argued that carries are just as viable here or gankers, but there are some high impact supports that should be considered here. The majority of the analysts chose a combination of Liquid’s JerAx and Newbee’s kaka, but there are other strong supports as well. OG’s support duo Cr1t and Fly is worth mentioning here, but also compLexity’s Zfreek or MVP’s Dubu.

The player with the most different heroes played is another category that applies to a player whose teams advances reasonably far. Mushi has snatched the title in previous tournaments and Fnatic looks to contest the top 8. Nahaz chose to go with EG’s Fear, whereas most other analysts chose OG’s Miracle. It is true that he has played 13 different heroes in his last 20 matches, though Mushi falls behind short by only one (12/20).


The competition seems to be as fierce as ever with a lot of teams capable of competing for the top. As a result, it seems unlikely that the overall amount of games played is going to be low, as teams will likely play out entire best-of-threes. Any amount below 90 seems unreasonable, as it would mean that at least 22 bo3s would end in a 2-0, or 20 bo3s and a 3-0 grand final.

The meta is quite diverse and there is a lot of potential for pocket picks and strategies. That said, there are some heroes that are so far out the meta that they seem unlikely even as niche picks. And as always, a tournament will develop its own meta, a meta that teams will adapt to and start picking into.

Similarly, this limits the amount of heroes banned, thus the overall numbers should be below that of heroes picked.

All analysts agree on the 81-90 heroes picked and the heroes banned are largely agreed upon to be between 71-80. These predictions seem reasonable, although you could potentially go a bit higher on the picks and a bit lower on the bans if you wanted to go with a bolder prediction.

As for shortest and longest games, the general consensus seems to be for aa 15-19minute short game and an around 80 minute long game. Going lower on the shortest game seems very unreasonable, but going higher could work out. As prestigious as Manila is, you may not want to call gg so early. As for the longest game, anything between 70-90 minutes seems fair, anything above that is rather extreme.

With support life becoming a bit easier over the years, high death counts should be quite rare, meaning a most deaths by a hero in a game are unlikely to be above 20. `15-17 seems quite reasonable, but if you feel that some player out there is a notorious “feeder”, then 18-20 could be a good gamble too.

As for most assists in a game, you have to ask yourself what you think is the hero that will achieve most assists in a single game. And if so, what would the game look like for that hero to achieve that? We see split analysis here, some going for a mid 20 value and some for mid 30. You could go for 28-30 to be in the safe middle.

Highest GPM, what will it be? There are a lot of heroes out there that are viable enough to set new GPM records, but will it really happen? Most analysts chose to go for 1000+ GPM, but its not unreasonable to assume it’ll be just below that.

Prediction Videos:

Nahaz & Noxville


Purge & Slacks

[NEW] The Dota 2 Manila Major Breakdown | manila major dota 2 – Vietnamnhanvan

On April 29, the open qualifier begins for the Dota 2 Manila Major.

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If recent form holds, Valve will announce eight invited teams just a few days beforehand. With just over a week to go until invites come out, we take a look at the top finishers from Shanghai and a few other teams with a chance to qualify for Manila.

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Unlike CS:GO, where the top eight teams at the previous major automatically qualify for the next, Dota 2 has no stated policy on how performance at Majors, or other tournaments for that matter, determine Major Invites. Evaluating teams is further complicated by scheduling. Many of the top teams take extended breaks between majors. In this case, only three LAN events fall between the end of the Shanghai Major and the announcement of invites for Manila.

The first of these events, last month’s Dota Pit Season 4 Finals in Croatia, saw MVP Phoenix cement its case for a Manila invite, defeating Evil Geniuses 3-0 to win the title. In last weekend’s StarLadder/i-League Invitational, Vici Gaming Reborn’s newly assembled roster pulled off a string of upsets, taking down OG, LGD, and Na’Vi in back-to-back series to put itself at the center of the invite discussion.

This weekend’s ESL One Manila event, starting Friday and held at the same site that will host the Manila Major in early June, will likely determine at least three of the eight teams on the direct invite list.

Locks (99-90%): Team Liquid, Team Secret, Evil Geniuses, MVP Phoenix

While there are no guarantees, the top four finishers at Shanghai all appear to have cemented their case for direct invites to Manila.

Team Liquid answered plenty of questions with its runner-up finish and is perhaps the safest bet. Liquid has the highest win percentage (71.2%) of any team on the current patch (6.86), but was only 2-4 against the top six teams prior to the Major (at that time, EG, OG, Alliance, EHOME, VG, LGD).

With Shanghai playoff series win against EG (2-0), Secret (2-0), and Alliance (2-1), Liquid erased any doubt. With the team’s full roster returning, it’s probably the safest bet here for an invite. Despite Artour “Arteezy” Babaev and Saahil “Universe” Aurora’s unexpected departures from EG to join Secret, both teams still might be locks for direct invites to Manila. Secret reassembles three of five players from its Shanghai Major Championship roster. Only ten Western players have 200 or more career match wins at pro Dota 2 LAN events, and four of them currently play for Secret.

For EG, Peter “ppd” Dager, Clinton “Fear” Loomis, and Syed “SumaiL” Hassan form a three-player core, who have finished in the top three of four consecutive $3 million Dota 2 tournaments, starting with a landmark win last February at the Dota 2 Asia Championships and ending with a third place finish in Shanghai. With the return of Kurtis “Aui_2000” Ling, EG features 4/5 of the roster that won The International 2015, plus veteran offlaner Sam “Bulba” Sosale, who coached the team at the event.

MVP Phoenix returns with its top four lineup from Shanghai, where it dominated for much of the tournament–averaging a tournament-best 24.9 kills, 45.1 assists per 35 minutes, and sweeping Secret 2-0 in the group phase before bowing out in the lower bracket to EG. Mid/carry player Kim “QO” Seon-yeob averaged 14.7k damage to enemy heroes per 35 minutes, more than 2k ahead of the next closest player at Shanghai. The team followed this up with a statement win at the Dota Pit Season 4 Finals in Croatia, taking out OG and Comeplxity and sweeping EG 3-0 in the Grand Finals.

MVP have shown some weakness in online matches since Dota Pit, being dismissed in the first round of the ESL One Manila Qualifiers and a two straight lopsided losses to Fnatic that cost the team a place at EPICENTER: Moscow in May. It was the only one of eight teams at StarLadder/i-League last weekend that failed to win a single match. However, it’s hard to see a scenario where Valve would leave a top four team at the previous major off the direct invite list.

MVP Phoenix is ecstatic to take a win over Newbee at The International 2015. Provided by Valve

Contenders (70-30%): Vici Gaming Reborn, Complexity, OG, Alliance, Fnatic

Vici Gaming Reborn vaulted onto this list with its StarLadder/i-League Invitational win last weekend. The team’s new roster boasts a solid pedigree, featuring young phenom Xu “fy” Linsen, who reportedly left Vici Gaming’s main squad voluntarily to lead this team. Carry player Yang “Zyf” Pu played as “YJ” on EHOME and served as a substitute player for Vici Gaming for the Frankfurt and Shanghai Majors. Last weekend’s win was arguably his breakout performance: He had seven of the nine 700+ GPM games at the event. Valve set an important precedent in directly inviting Vega Squadron to the Frankfurt Major after its win at ESL One New York, which suggests VG.R is in a strong position for a Manila Major bid.

Complexity appeared to finally get over the hump in Shanghai. In spite of a brutal group featuring both EG and Liquid, Complexity won its lower bracket match against Spirit and LGD, following a playoff match against Alliance, before falling 2-0 to EG. The team followed up with a semifinals showing at Dota Pit 4, defeating Virtus Pro in the quarterfinals. It’s also won more pro Dota 2 matches on the current patch than any other team.

OG and Alliance are in similar situations. Both teams have big wins that Complexity lack. Alliance stormed back onto the world stage after reuniting its TI3 Championship roster after the Frankfurt Major, with wins at the World Cyber Arena Finals and the StarLadder/i-League Season 13 Finals. OG is the Frankfurt Major champion. After an extended break, the team came back to finish third at an extremely competitive MarsTV Finals in February, losing to EG.

Unfortunately, both teams have little to show since Shanghai.

OG bowed out in its first series at Dota Pit 4, losing 2-1 to MVP Phoenix in its first official match since the previous major. Alliance, in action for the first time since StarLadder/i-League last weekend, looked strong initially, but lost in head-to-head elimination series against OG. Ultimately, both teams failed to reach the tournament’s final day, and both are vulnerable to being bumped off the direct invite list depending on events at ESL One Manila.

Fnatic is the most difficult team here to evaluate.

It finished fifth/sixth at Shanghai, defeating OG in a dramatic 2-1 lower bracket series. Critics, however, are quick to point out that the team began the event in the weakest of the four groups. The team clearly benefited from coaching at the event, with its drafts dramatically improving. The team boasts the second most wins on 6.86, and the second highest win percentage (71.1%) right behind Liquid, displaying the consistent dominance in regional online matches that has eluded MVP.

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However, there are serious concerns that the same inconsistency that led to bottom four finishes at seven straight international LANs prior to Shanghai(including TI5 and the Frankfurt Major) may continue to plague Fnatic.

Complexity takes on Virtus.pro in the lower bracket stage of The International 2015. Provided by Valve

The Wildcards (15-5%): EHOME, Wings, Mineski, Team Empire, Na’Vi, LGD Gaming

The final four teams competing at ESL One Manila, along with Na’Vi and LGD Gaming, form the remaining teams in the invite discussion.

Wings, Minseki, and Empire likely need to win this weekend’s tournament outright to earn a Manila Invite. But with Secret and Liquid competing, the field looks substantially less open than StarLadder/i-League. EHOME may be able to vault itself into consideration by reaching the Finals on Sunday. Complexity is playing in the weaker group, and its direct invite case is built around consistency and steady improvement.

Meanwhile, if Fnatic could advance out of a group that includes both Secret and EHOME, that would put to rest questions regarding its roster. Both teams need to advance past the GSL-style group phase to at least Sunday’s semifinals to feel completely safe when direct invites are announced.

Ultimately, with Secret and Liquid already locked in, there are most likely between one and three direct invites still up for grabs at ESL One Manila.

Let’s break this down into four cases. For convenience, we assume that Vici Gaming Reborn is ahead of Alliance and OG in Valve’s internal rankings based on StarLadder.

Both Fnatic and coL look look at least decent (e.g., both reach Sundays semifinals, or at least look solid and win at least one series in the group phase) and one of Secret, Liquid, Fnatic, or coL win the event. In this case, one of Alliance or OG (most likely Alliance) gets bumped from the Contenders list above and the remaining four teams join the Locks as direct invites to Manila.

One of Fnatic or coL struggles badly (say, is eliminated without winning a series), and either the other, Secret, or Liquid wins the event. In this case, it is very likely that the eight direct invites to Manila will consist of the Locks and Contenders above, less whichever of Fnatic or coL goes home first.

At the other extreme, if coL and Fnatic both look at least decent and a Wildcard team (say, EHOME) wins the event, its possible that three teams could punch their tickets to the Manila Major this weekend, with both OG and Alliance left off the direct invite list. In this case the Manila Major European Qualifier will arguably be as loaded as any Dota 2 tournament field this year outside of the four Majors.

Fnatic and coL both look absolutely abysmal (e.g., both are eliminated without winning a series) this weekend and Liquid or Secret win the event. This fairly unlikely scenario is the only reason Na’Vi and LGD survive at the extreme outer edge of the invites discussion. Should this occur, theres an outside chance Valve will reward either NaVi for their solid recent online play and second-place finish at StarLadder, or LGD for their 3rd place finish and the perceived potential of this roster based on legendary captain Zhang zhao8 Nings return, and one of these two teams would join VG.R, OG, and Alliance as the last four direct Manila invites. Obviously both are extreme long shots, as in this case invites will come down to subjective judgements about potential and the significance of online matches vs. LANs.

Regardless, the stakes this weekend are incredibly high. Starting Friday, we find out which two to five of the eight ESL One Manila teams will return to the same site to compete in the $3 million Manila Major in June.

OG.Yuragi on Battle Cup — 1050 GPM WTF Farming Speed

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OG.Yuragi on Battle Cup — 1050 GPM WTF Farming Speed

OG wins The Manila Major (Crowds Reaction)

Final fight before Team Liquid called GG. OG wins the Manila Major, becomes the first team to win two DotA2 Majors.

OG wins The Manila Major (Crowds Reaction)

The Manila Major Opening Ceremony

The Manila Major Opening Ceremony

The Manila Major Opening Ceremony


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