statistics are a confusing world in their own right. On top of the complex in-game metasystems to navigate (which items are good, which heroes beat which, etc) there are human elements to consider; personal tastes and even region-specific playstyles or drafting habits. It’s not all that surprising to learn, then, that making sense out of all this data comes naturally to an academic economist.
is an associate professor at the University of Western Ontario, and with a PhD from Duke University in Financial Economics he’s used to creating prediction models with various interacting factors. Luckily, he’s also somewhat of a Dota buff, adding some statistical heft to panel line-ups at major tournaments over the past few years. And with the
right around the corner, we thought he’d be the perfect person to help us score a perfect 100 on our Compendium Predictions quiz.
“This is not engineering,” Bester warns, as we get down to brass tacks. “It’s not a case of ‘there is one correct model’ and you build a bridge. It’s a case of a lot of messy data, and muddy questions, we expect our economic agents to adapt in their decision-making processes as time goes on. So you have to use the data, but you also have to use your own understanding of the actors involved in the decision process.”
The data collected for our current experiment in soothsaying comes from his and acquaintance Martin Knoxville’s painstakingly collated database of professional match results, ordered by patch number. Over the course of
there have been 945 drafts in professional matches, giving a massive pool of data to work with, including the pick and ban rates of every hero. But as Nahaz says, trusting the numbers is only half the work – we need to look at the players, too.
“If you just looked at all the 6.86 games, you would say that Vengeful Spirit would be the most picked hero for sure, that it would be a slam dunk,” he says, quoting Venge’s 44.1 percent pick rate so far. “But if you look at some of the more recent data in the
and some head-to-heads we saw there, a lot of the Western teams had been picking Invoker and getting punished really heavily for it. The Eastern teams had been letting them do that, and then punishing with elusive mid heroes like Puck and then early support rotations.”
If the trend continues, then Invoker is your Most Picked, but maybe his recent Deafening Blast nerf is enough to break that. These sorts of mind games only prove the need for careful analysis of the data with respect to the answers we want. On the first page of the
predictions, we’re asked which Heroes are likely to be the most successful (by kills, assists or GPM) on average, and on a single game basis. This also poses a further statistical test for player consistency, and even at which point certain teams are going to be out of the competition.
“Highest kill average is a much, much easier thing to predict,” Nahaz says. “So for example, I think the highest kill average will be Tiny, and I’ll also go for him in a single game, though if you wanted to go for Outworld Devourer there then I would not fight you at all, I think that’s totally reasonable.
“I’d go Anti-Mage for all of the highest GPM and Last Hits, all the farming ones,” he continued. “Just because if you look at all the teams that run an AM and the players that will farm heavily with that hero in the tournament, it’s really a good bet. There’s EternalEnvy, Matumbaman, Sylar, Cty, all of the top four farming carries around. Even RTZ will run a farming AM time to time, so it’s highly likely you’ll see that hero with the farming records.”
Taking players’ signature heroes into account also leads to breakthroughs in this first page as the Lowest Death Average prediction is a strong lock for LGD’s Sylar, according to Nahaz. This means the carry heroes that are fairly unique to him are likely to have low stats, those being Morphling and Terrorblade.
“Sylar doesn’t die when he’s playing Dota,” Nahaz states definitively. “I believe he is only averaging 3.5 deaths per game in LOSSES, which is ridiculous. That’s by far the lowest of any player who has lost at least 10 games in this patch, and of course if you look at him over his career, he tends to be even a little more conservative when it comes to LAN matches.”
For the Player section of predictions, Nahaz thinks Sylar could also be a good pick for Highest GPM, but will face stiff competition from EHOME’s Cty, or RTZ on Evil Geniuses, as his farm is being given priority in recent games. For Last Hits, EternalEnvy is the choice, given his propensity for an Ember Spirit or Naga Siren pick. And for Most Kills, opinion is split between Cty and Matumbaman again, as carries on teams that prefer to fight, despite what historical data says.
“In the past, you would usually go with a mid player in this category,” says Nahaz. “But I’d be reluctant to do that right now just because so many early support rotations, particularly Chinese teams, have been focused on ganking mid. We’ve even seen Alliance have a lot of success running S4 on elusive heroes like Puck or Nightstalker and shifting farm priority onto the side lanes just because of how heavily other top teams have been ganking mid early on.”
Other categories in the Player section go to the supports, with Nahaz’s picks for Highest Assists on average going to EHOME’s Kaka, and in a single game being split between EG’s Fear and Liquid’s Jerax, simply due to their skill on Earth Spirit, but also their overall team playstyle.
“Kaka’s also a really good Earth Spirit himself, but EHOME has been tending more towards shorter games,” Nahaz said. “And when you talk about Most X In A Single Game categories, what you want is teams that are capable of playing really long games. Secret, EG or Liquid could have Earth Spirit in a 40-minute stomp.”
As well as a team’s stamina in a single game, their performance throughout the tournament has a massive impact on these sorts of stats too, especially those looking for the most diverse hero pools. For a single player, Fear could have the greatest chance of playing the most heroes, as EG are expected to go quite far, though not the whole nine yards according to Nahaz.
“Despite the fact that EG and OG have the highest skill ceiling right now, I think EHOME is just statistically too strong a favourite to ignore right now,” Nahaz says. “My gut tells me that one of EG or OG will find a way to the grand final and have a good chance to win, but all the numbers right now say EHOME has almost a 30 percent chance of winning the whole thing, which out of 16 teams is ridiculous.”
One of those three is also statistically the most likely to have the shortest game and least deaths, given the stompings they’re expected to deliver in the early stages – though EG’s group isn’t quite as easy, so perhaps OG or EHOME – while longer games are expected from LGD or Secret. When it comes to highest kills on average, though, a fast burning team that might not make it very far is better than a favourite.
“I would be tempted to take MVP Phoenix there,” Nahaz says, “just because when they win they rack up kills at a ridiculous rate, but their draw is so unfavourable I’d lean toward Liquid there. They are more likely to have some success early on in the tournament.”
MVP are also in the running for least different heroes picked, given their predicted early exit, along with Archon and Fnatic. Despite common Reddit memes, Alliance are not predicted to pick the same five heroes every single game, though. “They’re certainly less varied than the other tier one teams right now,” laughs Nahaz, “but they’re not that small a hero pool and they’ve got a good chance of making it pretty far in the tournament, so they’re actually a pretty bad pick there.”
For Nahaz’s full run-down on his picks for the Shanghai Major, check out the in-depth video above walking through each of the predictions his simulations have turned out. He doesn’t guarantee results, or any simple answers but insists that the process is more about the fun of deduction than the results.
“The main thing that I’ve been saying to people is that I can give you good guidance on maybe two thirds of these,” he says. “But honestly, when we’re talking about the hero with most last hits, or the player with the most assists, pick your favourite player in that role. You’re as likely to be right as anyone else in this crazy game!”
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[Update] Is the name of Nahaz helping you? | nahaz – Vietnamnhanvan
Your name of Nahaz makes you quick-minded, versatile, and very expressive. … All names are not equal . Nahaz, the names you use create your life experiences. Find out how the meaning of Nahaz and the energy of your name have shaped your life. Request a Free Name Report .
Alphabetical First Name Meaning Index
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Nahaz – Detailed Meaning
Your name of Nahaz makes you quick-minded with the result that you are never at a loss for words. When you are feeling relaxed and cheerful, you can be very charming and able to say just the right thing to compliment or inspire someone. When challenged for an explanation on a matter that could cause conflict, you can almost instantly come up with an acceptable answer to deflect the issue, even if you have to stretch the truth a little. You make the effort to communicate with others because you place importance on having people like you.
Talking comes easily to you, but guard against your inclination to talk too much, especially if you are over-stressed. Because you are so expressive, you could excel in sales but, here again, must avoid talking the customer both into and out of the sale. When you are annoyed or under excessive pressure, be careful not to be biting in your speech, or fault-finding and hard to please.
Your name creates two conflicting natures. One side desires placidity, relaxation, and social activities, while the other side longs for change and travel, and opportunities that allow you to be creative and independent from all routine and interference.
Farther fields look greener to you and you find it hard to finish what you have started. Your difficulty in establishing financial stability often causes your personal affairs to be in turmoil.The qualities in this name tend to narrow your opportunities by making it difficult for you to concentrate. A poor memory could eventually be a problem.
There is much confusion under this name with your moods fluctuating from one extreme to the other. You could, at times, be too easily influenced against your better judgment and be led into activities that put you at risk. Through lack of discretion and being too emotional, you could attract bitter experiences and disappointments in people.
Your extreme sensitivity and intensity have an adverse effect on your nervous system and, under extreme pressure, could cause a nervous breakdown. There will be a toll on your health causing you to have a sensitive, nervous stomach, indigestion, and a tendency toward ulcers. It could also cause upsets in the fluid functions: in the kidneys, bladder, or circulatory system of your body. These upsets drain your vitality and make you tire more readily.
- Weakness in your health would come through emotional disturbances and tension affecting the nervous system. Nervous indigestion and disorders in the fluid functions could result.
Your date of birth defines your unique core purpose, the reason for your life.
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Are European holidays bad for African Americans?
European Holidays vs African Americans
นอกจากการดูบทความนี้แล้ว คุณยังสามารถดูข้อมูลที่เป็นประโยชน์อื่นๆ อีกมากมายที่เราให้ไว้ที่นี่: ดูเพิ่มเติม
Nahaz’s message to SA Dota haters and Kyle calling out PPD
FIRED @ti9 main event day 4
after Team Secret vs Infamous Game 2
Alicia Keys – Empire State Of Mind (Part II) Broken Down LIVE @ AOL Sessions
Alicia Keys Empire State Of Mind (Part II) Broken Down LIVE @ AOL Sessions\r
Buy Alicia Keys’ new album \”The Element Of Freedom\” from\r
THE WAY THINGS ARE | Position 6 Highlights with Nahaz | Dota 2
Full episode: https://pdsh.re/e/positionsix83nahaz
Follow Dan on Twitter over at https://twitter.com/danieloffen
And listen to the podcast on your favourite platforms!
Directly support the creator on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/positionsix
For more Dota 2 content make sure to check out http://www.joinDOTA.com/
Photo of Dan courtesy by BeyondTheSummit
Photos of Nahaz courtesy of ESL
Thoughts on Shanghai Major Invites
I take a break from grading final exam papers to give my thoughts on direct invites to the Shanghai Major. Once again I threw this together spur of the moment, so sorry if the quality is not the best. I think there are strong cases for all these teams and even maybe one more (Empire) that I don’t mention much.
นอกจากการดูบทความนี้แล้ว คุณยังสามารถดูข้อมูลที่เป็นประโยชน์อื่นๆ อีกมากมายที่เราให้ไว้ที่นี่: ดูบทความเพิ่มเติมในหมวดหมู่Wiki